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Resumo O objetivo é analisar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama e sua correlação com o status de desenvolvimento socioeconômico no Brasil. Estudo ecológico de séries temporais realizado nos 26 estados, Distrito Federal e regiões do Brasil. As fontes de dados foram o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (número de óbitos), o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (população residente) e o estudo da Carga Global de Doenças (socio-demographic index - SDI). Foram usados dados de 2005 a 2019. A tendência foi analisada pelos modelos de regressão de Prais-Winsten. A relação entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI foi analisada pelo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. No período do estudo ocorrerem 207.683 óbitos por câncer de mama. A taxa padronizada de mortalidade média foi de 19,95 óbitos por 100.000 mulheres no Brasil. O Brasil e todas as regiões apresentaram tendência crescente da mortalidade. Do total de estados, 22 apresentaram tendência crescente. Verificou-se relação positiva entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI. A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por câncer de mama apresentou tendência crescente no Brasil, em todas as regiões e na maioria das unidades da federação. Verificou-se associação direta entre mortalidade e SDI, indicando maior magnitude em regiões mais desenvolvidas.
Abstract The aim is to analyze the trend in breast cancer mortality rates and its correlation with the socioeconomic development status in Brazil. It involved an ecological time series study carried out in the 26 units of the federation, Federal District and regions of Brazil. Data sources included the Mortality Information System (number of deaths), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (resident population) and the study of the Global Burden of Disease (Socio-demographic Index - SDI). Data from 2005 to 2019 were used. The trend was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression models. The relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI was analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. During the study period, 207,683 deaths from breast cancer occurred. The average standardized mortality rate was 19.95 deaths per 100,000 women in Brazil. All the regions of Brazil showed an increasing trend in mortality. Of the total federative units, 22 showed an increasing trend. There was a positive relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI. The standardized mortality rate for breast cancer showed an increasing trend in Brazil, in all regions and in most states. There was a direct association between mortality and SDI, indicating a greater magnitude in more developed regions.
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Wide-Field Calcium Images (WFCI) directly reflect neuronal excitation, but their poor frame rate could be a drawback for time series analysis. This work was aimed at exploring the diagnostic capability retained by a time series obtained from calcium imaging data. To that purpose, we analyzed publicly available data from 2.88 hour continuous recordings of calcium images obtained from seven mice at different wake/sleep stages. Data were obtained from the Physionet portal and were submitted to Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). The association between retrosplenial and parietal areas was also assessed. Nonlinear RQA analysis allowed to identify the right retrosplenial and parietal areas as particularly sensitive to changes in sleep walking condition. Specifically, our results suggested that the RQA feature lmean decreases in non-REM sleep_1 stage as compared to waking stage. Sleep (both sleep_1 stage and REM) apparently elicits an increase in the association between retrosplenial and parietal areas. Overall, these results suggest that RQA and association analysis are appropriate to assess modifications associated to changes in brain condition, in spite of the low sampling rate of WFCI signals.
Las Imágenes de Calcio de Campo Ancho (Wide-Field Calcium Images, WFCI) reflejan directamente la excitación neuronal, pero su escasa resolución temporal pudiera resultar un impedimento para el análisis de series temporales. El presente trabajo tuvo por finalidad explorar la capacidad diagnostica que retiene una serie temporal extraída de imágenes de calcio. Para ello, se estudió una base de datos disponible en la red que contiene registros de 2.88 horas de duración de imágenes de calcio correspondientes a 7 ratones transgénicos a diferentes estadios de sueño/vigilia. Los datos fueron descargados del portal Physionet y sometidos a Análisis de Cuantificación Recurrente (Recurrent Quantification Analysis, RQA). La asociación entre las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas fue también evaluada. El análisis no lineal mediante RQA permitió identificar las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas como zonas particularmente sensibles a cambios en el estado de sueño/vigilia. Específicamente, nuestros resultados sugieren que el índice l mean se redujo en el estadio 1 de sueño no REM en comparación con el estado de vigilia. El estado de sueño, tanto REM como no-REM aparentemente induce un reforzamiento en la apreciación entre las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas. En su conjunto, estos resultados apuntan que el análisis de RQA y de asociación entre áreas son pertinentes para sensar las modificaciones asociadas a cambios en el estado del cerebro, a pesar de la baja resolución temporal de las señales WFCI.
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Objective:To predict and analyze the number of acute pancreatitis (AP) inpatients based on time series model, and to explore the predictive efficiency of the model.Methods:Clinical data of AP inpatients in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 2014 to December 2019 were collected. R software was used to collect the time series of AP inpatients, and the trend and seasonal characteristics of AP inpatients from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed. Furthermore, the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was established through stationarity test, model ordering and model testing steps, and the best selected model was used to predict the monthly number of inpatients in 2019 to verify its prediction efficiency.Results:A total of 3 939 AP patients were included in the study. The most common etiology for AP was cholestrogenic (48.2%), followed by hyperacylglyceremia (36.3%). The peak age of hospitalization was from 40 to 60 years old. Time series analysis showed that the number of AP inpatients increased year by year. The highest peak of the disease was from February to March, followed by September to November; and there was seasonal variation and the incidence was relatively small in summer. The established original training set sequence did not pass the stationarity test ( P=0.061), so the ARIMA model was established after it was transformed into a stationarity sequence by first-order difference. According to the criterion of minimum AIC value, ARIMA(2, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the best model. The model was used to predict the number of AP inpatients in 2019, showing that it could better fit the trend of onset time and had good short-term prediction effect. The mean root error and absolute error were 6.8790 and 4.7783, respectively. Conclusions:The number of AP inpatients increases year by year with seasonal changes. ARIMA model is effective in predicting the number of AP inpatients and can be used for short-term prediction.
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ObjectiveTo explore the effect of exposure to atmospheric particulate matters on the outpatient visits of respiratory disorders in Jiaxing City，Zhejiang Province. MethodsDaily air pollutant monitoring data，meteorological data and outpatient visits of respiratory disorders in Jiaxing City from 2019 to 2021 were collected．A generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the effect and laggeel effect of the concentrations of atmospheric particulates for outpatient visits of respiratory disorders after adjusting for secular trend， day-of-the-week effect， holiday effect， and meteorological variables. ResultsThe daily average concentrations of PM2.5， PM10， O3 and NO2 exceeded the standard， and the proportion of days exceeding the standard was 3.4%， 1.3%， 11.0% and 0.8%， respectively. Every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration showed the strongest effects on the daily outpatient visits of respiratory disorders， adult and childhood respiratory disorders all on lag07 with ER（95%CI） being 2.29%（1.35%‒3.24%）， 2.31% （1.39%‒3.23%） and 2.65 % （1.36%‒3.96%）， respectively. The maximum ER of outpatient visits for respiratory disorders in children was higher than that in adults. Every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM10 concentration showed the strongest effects on the daily outpatient visits of respiratory disorders on lag07， adult respiratory disorders on lag06 and childhood respiratory disorders on lag07 with ER（95%CI） being 1.42% （0.87%‒1.96%）， 1.49%（0.99%‒1.99%） and 1.61% （0.87%‒2.36%）， respectively. The results of double-pollutant model showed that the effect of atmospheric particulate reduced after O3 was introduced into the model. ConclusionThere are a short-term effect and a laggeel effect of atmospheric particulate on the outpatient visits of respiratory disorders. It is necessary to strengthen the health protection of the respiratory system of the population， especially the children.
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Objective To explore the acute effects of NO2 on children's respiratory hospitalization risk in Foshan City. Methods The daily average concentrations of six air pollutants such as NO2 and fine particulate matter, and meteorological data including average temperature and relative humidity in Foshan were collected from 2016 to 2019. Data on the daily number of children newly hospitalized for respiratory diseases (ECRH) in Foshan Women and Children Hospital were retrieved. Time series analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate the effect of daily NO2 concentration on the hospitalization risk of children with respiratory diseases. Results From 2016 to 2019, the average ECRH in the hospital was 10. The daily average concentrations of air pollutants NO2, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 were 42.0 μg/m3, 35.3 μg/m3, 58.1 μg/m3, and 11.4 μg/m3, respectively. The air pressure, daily average temperature and relative humidity of atmosphere were 1008.4 Pa, 23.7℃ and 73.3%, respectively. ECRH was significantly correlated with the daily average concentration of NO2 (r=0.079, P3 increase of NO2 concentration in the single pollutant model, the excess risk of ECHR in the hospital increased by 1.22% (95% CI: 0.06%, 2.40%) and 1.37% (95% CI: 0.23%, 2.53%) in lag0 and Lag1 day, respectively. The strongest effect appeared in lag0:7 with the excess risk increasing by 1.70% (95% CI:0.12%, 3.31%). In the NO2 + SO2 + CO + O3_8h + PM2.5 and NO2 + SO2 + CO + O3_8h + PM10 multi-pollutant models, significance correlation still existed between the daily average NO2 concentration and ECHR in lag0, lag1 and lag0:1 to lag0:7. The strongest effect appeared in lag0:1, and the excess risks were 4.06% (95% CI: 1.83%, 6.34%) and 3.95% (95% CI: 1.85%, 6.09%), respectively. Dose-response relationship analysis showed a linear relationship between the daily average NO2 concentration and ECHR, and the excess risk of new hospitalization gradually increased with the increase of daily average NO2 concentration. Conclusion There was a significant correlation between NO2 concentration and hospitalization risk of children with respiratory diseases in Foshan City, which suggests that the government should further strengthen the prevention and control of air pollution.
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Objective To explore the fluctuation characteristics of long-term doctor's order workload in pharmacy intravenous admixture services (PIVAS) and build a daily workload fluctuation prediction model and provide reference for the adjustment of PIVAS work mode. Methods Daily workload data of long-term doctor’s orders from PIVAS in the East Campus of Zhongshan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University from July 2020 to June 2021 were selected , and the time series analysis method was used to analyze the workload fluctuation characteristics and a prediction model was established. The accuracy of the model was verified by fitting parameters and prediction results. Results The fluctuation of PIVAS long-term doctor's daily workload data had the characteristics of periodicity, short-term slow rise and irregular variation. The Winters multiplier model was used to fit the series with R2 = 0.777, the significance value of Ljung-Box statistic value (P value) was 0.060, and the mean absolute error percentage between the fitted and actual values was 4.45%, indicating that the model fitting accuracy was high. The average relative deviation between the predicted and actual results was 3.81%, indicating that the model prediction was effective. Conclusion The model constructed in this study could be used for the analysis and prediction of long-term doctor's orders workload of PIVAS. However, because the workload of doctor's orders has fluctuations such as periodicity and irregular changes, it is necessary to adjust the working model according to the fluctuation characteristics of the workload and the prediction results to ensure the efficient operation of PIVAS.
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Background Exposure to air pollutants O3 and PM2.5 is closely related to population mortality. Most of the domestic research findings are for residents in coastal areas, and less for those in the central and western regions. Objective To investigate the acute effects of O3 and PM2.5 on the mortality of residents in a city of central China. Methods Data were collected on atmospheric pollutants, meteorological data, and population mortality in a city of central China from January 1, 2015 to June 30, 2021. Meteorological data included daily average temperature, air pressure, and relative humidity. Atmospheric pollution data included daily mean concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO and maximum 8 h O3. Generalized additive model with Poisson distribution was used for estimating the relationships between air pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) and population mortality, and further stratified by age, gender, and education. Results The daily maximum 8 h average concentration of O3 in the city during the study period was 94.38 μɡ·m−3 and the daily average concentration of PM2.5 was 55.56 μɡ·m−3. In the single-pollutant model, the correlations between O3 concentration and total deaths as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag02, lag2, lag02, lag0, lag02, and lag0, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of O3, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality were increased by 0.09% (−0.08%–0.25%), 0.35% (0–0.71%), 0.43% (0.18%–0.68%), 0.45% (0.02%–0.91%), 0.59% (0.16%–1.02%), and 0.33% (0.01%–0.65%), respectively. The effect of O3 on total mortality was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The correlations between PM2.5 concentration and total deaths, as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag1, lag5, lag01, lag05, lag04, and lag01, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of PM2.5, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality increased by 0.02% (−0.09–0.13%), 0.25% (0.01%–0.50%), 0.35% (0.16%–0.54%), 1.18% (0.59%–1.77%), 0.17% (−0.13%–0.40%), and 0.65% (0.38%–0.92%), respectively, with no statistically significant effects of PM2.5 on total mortality and mortality due to coronary heart disease (P>0.05). During warm season (from May to October), the ER (95%CI) values of total deaths per 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in O3 in male, people aged 6~65 years, people aged >65 years, and people below high school education were 0.46% (0.16%–0.75%), 0.38% (0.08%–0.68%), 0.41% (0.14%–0.66%), and 0.38% (0.14%–0.61%), respectively, while the O3 effect was not statistically significant (P>0.05) during cool season (from November to April). Conclusions Atmospheric pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) have acute effects on mortality in the city, with the elderly, people with less than a high school education, and those with circulatory disease being more sensitive to O3 and PM2.5 exposures.
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Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar indicadores de uso de serviços de saúde bucal da atenção primária à saúde no Maranhão antes e durante a pandemia de COVID-19. Estudo ecológico de série temporal interrompida cuja unidade de análise foi o Maranhão. A exposição foi a pandemia de COVID-19, dicotomizada em pré e pandemia. Os desfechos foram calculados pela razão da quantidade de procedimentos preventivos (RPP), de urgência (RPU) e procedimentos curativos (RPC), e a projeção censitária da população do estado, multiplicada por mil, mensalmente. Os dados foram coletados do Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, no período de 2015.1 a 2022.2. As análises foram realizadas por meio do modelo autorregressivo, integrado e de médias móveis com sazonalidade. Houve tendência crescente dos três indicadores até jan./2019. A pandemia causou redução significativa na RPP (Xreg = -6,55; p-valor = 0,0008) e na RPC (Xreg = -4,74; p-valor = 0,0005), mas não influenciou a RPU (Xreg = -0,03; p-valor = 0,12) desde o primeiro semestre de 2020, persistindo até o segundo semestre de 2022. A pandemia de COVID-19 provocou redução nos serviços preventivos e curativos de saúde bucal no Maranhão.
Abstract This article aims to analyze indicators of the utilization of oral health services (UOHS) in primary health care in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted an ecological time series study. The unit of analysis was the state of Maranhão, and the exposure variable was the COVID-19 pandemic, dichotomized into pre-pandemic and pandemic. The outcome variables were the monthly rates per 1,000 population of three UOHS indicators: rate of preventive procedures (RPP-PHC); rate of urgent procedures (RUP-PHC), and rate of curative procedures (RCP-PHC). The data were collected from the Primary Health Care Information System (SISAB) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period from 2015-2022. The analyses were performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The three indicators showed an upward trend up to January 2019. The pandemic caused a significant reduction in the RPP (Xreg = -6.55; p-value = 0.0008) and RCP (Xreg = -4.74; p-value = 0.0005), starting in the first semester of 2020 and continuing into the second semester of 2022, but did not influence the RUP (Xreg = -0.03; p-value = 0.12). The COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction in preventive and curative oral health services in Maranhão.
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ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the burden of occupational cancer in Brazil and federative units between 1990 and 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Deaths from cancer whose attributable risk factor was occupational carcinogens were considered. Spatial analysis was performed with the first and last years of the series (1990 and 2019). Age-adjusted mortality rates were used to estimate the global Moran's Index (Moran's I), and the local indicator of spatial association (LISA) to identify clusters in the country with the respective statistical significance. The occupational cancer mortality rate, adjusted for age, was analyzed based on its trend for Brazil and federative units, in the period between 1990 and 2019. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, occupational cancer mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (R2=0.62; p<0.001) as well as the burden of disease indicator — DALY (R2=0.84; p<0.001). However, mortality is increasing in most states, suggesting that a minority of federative units induce the country's global trend. There is also the development of a spatial pattern of autocorrelation, indicating clusters of states with low mortality and DALY rates in the Northeast and high values in the South of the country. Conclusion: The overall decreasing trend in the trend of occupational cancer masks the heterogeneity across states. This scenario may be associated with the diversity of economic activities, and suggests a decentralized and equitable plan for occupational cancer surveillance.
RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a carga de câncer relacionado ao trabalho no Brasil e unidades da federação, entre 1990 e 2019. Métodos: Extraímos os dados do estudo Carga Global de Doenças (GBD). Consideramos as mortes por câncer cujo fator de risco atribuível fossem agentes ocupacionais carcinogênicos. A análise espacial foi realizada com o primeiro e último anos da série (1990 e 2019). As taxas de mortalidade ajustadas por idade foram utilizadas para calcular o índice de Moran global (I de Moran) e o indicador local de associação espacial (LISA). A taxa de mortalidade por câncer relacionado ao trabalho, ajustada por idade, foi analisada com base em sua tendência, para Brasil e unidades da federação, no período entre 1990 e 2019. Resultados: No período citado, a taxa de mortalidade por câncer relacionado ao trabalho exibiu tendência de decréscimo (R2=0,62; p<0,001), assim como o indicador de carga de doença — DALY (R2=0,84; p<0,001). Contudo, a mortalidade é crescente na maioria dos estados, o que sugere que uma minoria de unidades induz a tendência global do país. Há ainda formação de um padrão espacial de autocorrelação, indicando agrupamentos de estados com baixas taxas de mortalidade e DALY no Nordeste e valores altos no Sul do país. Conclusão: A tendência global de decréscimo na tendência do câncer relacionado ao trabalho mascara a heterogeneidade entre estados. Esse cenário pode estar associado à diversidade de atividades econômicas e sugere um plano descentralizado e equitativo da vigilância do câncer relacionado ao trabalho.
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Contrary to international trends, the mortality rate of sickle cell disease increased in Brazil after the implementation of the neonatal screening program, probably due to improving access to diagnosis. This study aimed to assess differences in the temporal trend of the mortality rate and median age at death from sickle cell disease in Brazil, considering implemented measures to expand diagnosis, and improve health care access in-country and in the international scenario. Time series were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2019. Changes in the mortality rate and median age at death were verified via segmented regression models, which were stratified by sex, region of residence, and age. Most deaths occurred in non-white people, young adults, and the Southeast and Northeast population. Sickle cell disease mortality rate increased until 2010 (13.31%; 95%CI: 6.37; 20.70), particularly in individuals aged 30 years or more (12.78%; 95%CI: 2.98; 23.53) and in the Northeast (12.27%; 95%CI: 8.92; 15.72). Most deaths occurred in the second decade of life (3.01 deaths/million), with a 59% increase in the median age of death in Brazil, from 27.6 to 30.3 years, more pronounced in females and the North Region. The observed gain in the survival of sickle cell disease in Brazil is still much lower than in developed countries and presents regional disparities, probably due to the lack of access to health care and recent treatments, such as hydroxyurea, still restricted to hematological referral centers in Brazilian capitals.
Ao contrário dos estudos internacionais, houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme no Brasil após a implantação do programa de triagem neonatal, provavelmente devido à melhoria do acesso ao diagnóstico. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as diferenças na tendência temporal da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme e idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil, considerando as medidas implementadas para ampliar o diagnóstico e melhorar o acesso à saúde no país e no cenário internacional. As séries temporais foram extraídas do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade de 1996 a 2019. Mudanças na magnitude da taxa de mortalidade e na idade mediana ao morrer foram verificadas via modelos de regressão segmentada, estratificados por sexo, região de residência e idade. A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu entre jovens, pretos ou pardos, e habitantes das regiões Sudeste e Nordeste. Houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme até 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), especialmente em indivíduos com 30 anos ou mais (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) e habitantes do Nordeste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu durante a segunda década de vida (3,01 óbitos/milhão), com um aumento de 59% na idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil (de 27,6 para 30,3 anos), mais acentuada entre mulheres e na Região Norte. O aumento observado na sobrevivência da doença falciforme no Brasil ainda é muito menor do que em países desenvolvidos e com disparidades regionais, provavelmente pela falta de acesso aos serviços de saúde e aos tratamentos recentes, como a hidroxiureia, que ainda é restrita aos centros de referência hematológicos das capitais brasileiras.
A diferencia de los estudios internacionales, en Brasil se produjo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes tras la implantación del programa de tamizaje neonatal, probablemente debido a la mejora del acceso al diagnóstico. El objetivo del estudio es determinar las diferencias en la tendencia temporal de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de muerte por enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil, teniendo en cuenta las medidas implementadas para ampliar el diagnóstico y mejorar el acceso a la atención sanitaria en el país y en el escenario internacional. Las series temporales fueron extraídas del Sistema de Información sobre de Mortalidad de 1996 a 2019. Los cambios en la magnitud de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de la muerte se identificaron con modelos de regresión segmentados, estratificados por sexo, región de residencia y edad. La mayoría de las muertes ocurrieron en personas de color, adultos jóvenes y los habitantes del sureste y noreste. Hubo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes hasta 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), sobre todo en individuos de 30 años o más (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) y en el Noreste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). La mayoría de las muertes ocurrió en la segunda década de la vida (3,01 muertes/millón), con un aumento del 59% en la edad media de muerte en Brasil, de 27,6 a 30,3 años, más pronunciado en las mujeres y en el Norte. La ganancia observada en la supervivencia de la enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil es todavía muy inferior a la de los países desarrollados y con disparidades regionales, probablemente debido a la falta de acceso a la asistencia sanitaria y a los tratamientos recientes, como la hidroxiurea, todavía restringidos a los centros de referencia hematológica de las capitales brasileñas.
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ObjectiveTo explore the association between air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in a district of Shanghai. MethodsDaily meteorological data， environmental data， data of outpatient visits to two secondary hospitals and two tertiary hospitals in this district from January 1， 2015 to December 31， 2019 were collected. A Poisson regression generalized linear model was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between the air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in this area. ResultsDuring the study period， the total number of outpatient visits in the included hospitals was 17 802 634， with an average daily total of （9 750±4 191） outpatient visits，and an average daily of （761±341） respiratory outpatient visits. In the lag effect of single pollutant model， when the concentration of air pollutant increased by 10 μg·m-3， PM2.5， SO2， NO2 had the maximum lag effect on the number of outpatient visits in the department of internal medicine for respiratory diseases on lag day 4， day 5 and day 7， respectively. And the RR values and 95%CI were 1.002 0（1.001 3‒1.002 6）， 1.0154（1.012 3‒1.018 5）， and 1.006 1（1.005 3‒1.006 9）， respectively. ConclusionThere is a exposure-response relationship between air pollutants and the number of outpatient visits in each department of the hospitals， and different pollutants have different degrees of lag effects.
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Objective To explore the relationship between the outpatient visits for adult asthma and air pollution in a tertiary hospital in Hefei. Methods The number of outpatient visits for asthma in a tertiary hospital in Hefei from 2014 to 2020 was collected. The air pollutant data was obtained through the Hefei Air Monitoring Station, and the meteorological indicators of the same period were collected through the China Meteorological Network. The R statistical software was used to establish a generalized additive model to analyze the lag effect of air pollution on the number of outpatient visits for asthma. Results From 2014 to 2020, there were 7 220 asthma outpatients in the tertiary hospital in Hefei, including 3104 males and 4 116 females, 3 798 patients in warm season, and 3 422 patients in cold season. During the period, the average concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, O3, PM10, and PM2.5 were 11.9μg/m3, 40.1μg/m3, 0.9 mg/m3, 87.3μg/m3, 81.3μg/m3, and 55.7μg/m3, respectively. The results of the single-pollutant model showed that every 10μg/m3 increase in SO2 concentration increased the risk of asthma by 0.74% (95%CI: 0.22%-1.29%), and the effect was the greatest on Lag2 day. NO2 increased the risk of asthma by 0.31% (95%CI: 0.13%-0.49%), with the greatest effect on Lag0 day. The analysis of the dual pollutant model found that whereas the effect of SO2 decreased after the incorporation of NO2, the effect increased after the incorporation of CO, O3, PM10, or PM2.5, respectively. The effect of NO2 on asthma decreased after the incorporation of SO2, whereas the effect on asthma increased after the inclusion of CO, PM10, or PM2.5. Stratified analysis of cold and warm seasons showed that the effect of NO2 on asthma was the greatest in lag0 in cold season. The effect of SO2 was higher in cold season than in warm season, and it was the highest in lag2. The gender stratification analysis showed that the effects of SO2 and NO2 on male asthma were higher than those on females. Conclusion From 2014 to 2020, the increase of SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Hefei is positively correlated with the risk of asthma in the outpatient department of a tertiary hospital. The effect has a certain lag. It is of great significance to formulate relevant preventive measures for the occurrence and attack of asthma.
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Objectives To investigate the effects of low level of ambient NO2 on the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Enshi city and to identify sensitive population, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating health policies. Methods The data of air pollutants, meteorological factors and death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Enshi city from 2015 to 2018 were collected. The generalized additive model based on Poisson distribution was used to analyze the effects of low ambient NO2 level on the death risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Enshi city. A subgroup analysis was performed on age, gender, and season. Results The average concentrations of major gaseous air pollutants in Enshi city from 2015 to 2018 were NO2 (21.40 μg/m3), SO2 (9.68 μg/m3), CO (0.88 mg/m3), and O3 (61.21 μg/m3), respectively, all of which did not exceed the national secondary standard. The results of single pollutant model analysis showed that each 1 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration in lag0 day was associated with a 0.33% increase (95% CI: 0.06 - 0.72) (P>0.05) in mortality risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. In the female population, each 1 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration in lag01 day was associated with a 0.92% increase (95% CI: 0.26 - 1.56) (P2 concentration in lag0 day was associated with a 0.62% increase (95% CI: 0.12 - 1.12) (P2, CO or O3), the effect of NO2 on the mortality risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women and the whole population in cold season still existed. Conclusion The low ambient level of NO2 in Enshi city was significantly associated with increased mortality risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in female population as well as in cold seasons in the whole population. Attention should be paid to the health protection of special populations in areas with low ambient pollution level of NO2 in special seasons.
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ObjectiveThe study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the short-term effects of ultrafine particles （UFPs） exposure on the occurrence and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. MethodsThe number of daily cases of cardio-cerebrovascular events， including stroke and acute myocardial infarction， and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases， daily concentrations of air pollutants and weather conditions in Minhang， Shanghai from January 1， 2016 to December 31， 2018 were collected. Associations between UFPs and the number of daily cases and deaths were analyzed by the general additive Poisson regression model with the control of meteorological variables， day-of-the-week effects and time trends. Increased percentages of the number of daily cases and deaths and 95%CI were used to indicate the short-term effects of UFPs. ResultsDuring the study period， in the single-pollutant model， an increase of 2022 particles/cm3 showed significant effects with 5.01%（95%CI： 1.22%‒8.94%）and 6.05%（95%CI： 1.53%‒10.80%）increments in the percentages of the number of daily cases and deaths respectively. After adjusting other pollutants in the two-pollutant model， statistically significant associations were also observed. ConclusionUFPs exposure has acute impacts on the occurrence and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.
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No ano de 2019, dos 23 países de prioridade global da hanseníase, a Índia, o Brasil e a Indonésia foram responsáveis por mais de 80% dos casos reportados da doença no mundo, com o Brasil ocupando a segunda posição no ranking dos países de maior carga da doença. A hanseníase apresenta distribuição espacial heterogênea, possuindo forte relação com as desigualdades sociais, em que as regiões com piores indicadores socioeconômicos são espaços de manutenção da doença. Assim, considerando esse contexto, buscou-se analisar a associação da hanseníase com determinantes sociais em Imperatriz/MA e Ribeirão Preto/SP. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, realizado no período de 2006 a 2016 considerando os casos de hanseníase notificados nos dois municípios. Em relação aos determinantes sociais, foram exploradas as dimensões do Censo Demográfico referentes a Aglomeração, Alfabetização, Condições de ocupação do domicílio, Condições sanitárias, Renda do domicílio, Raça/Etnia e Idade. Em Imperatriz, identificou-se áreas de risco de hanseníase com aplicação da Estatística de Varredura, e em seguida, verificou-se a associação com determinantes sociais através da regressão logística binária. Em Ribeirão Preto, foram computados a quantidade de casos de hanseníase de acordo com setores censitários e a associação com determinantes sociais foi verificada através da aplicação de modelos aditivos generalizados para localização, escala de forma (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape - GAMLSS). Como resultados, em Imperatriz, a estatística de varredura identificou áreas de alto risco da doença (RR>1), e o modelo logístico evidenciou que as dimensões compostas pelos determinantes: sexo, escolaridade, alto número de moradores por domicílio e baixa renda foram associados a áreas de alto risco (OR = 1,25; IC 95% = 1,07-1,49; ROC = 0,65). Em Ribeirão Preto, os resultados do melhor modelo indicaram que homens e mulheres sem escolaridade e pessoas com renda de 1 a 2 salários mínimos estavam associados a um aumento relativo no número de casos de hanseníase (7,37% [p=0,0086], 7,10% [p=0,0057] e 2,44% [p=0,0268], respectivamente). Homens negros e mulheres pardas sem escolaridade tiveram associação com um aumento relativo do número de casos da doença (10,77% [p=0,0162] e 4,02% [p=0,0081], respectivamente). O estudo permitiu evidenciar a relação dos determinantes sociais ao risco de hanseníase em dois cenários distintos. Pessoas sem escolaridade e níveis reduzidos de renda foram associados à doença em ambos os cenários. Esses resultados reforçam que situações de vulnerabilidade são uma das principais responsáveis pela manutenção do quadro de endemicidade da hanseníase nesses cenários, e consequentemente, no Brasil
In 2019, of the 23 countries with global priority for leprosy, India, Brazil and Indonesia were responsible for more than 80% of the reported cases of the disease in the world, with Brazil occupying the second position in the ranking of countries with the highest burden of disease. Leprosy has a heterogeneous spatial distribution, presenting a strong relationship with social inequalities, in which regions with the worst socioeconomic indicators are areas for the maintenance of the disease. Thus, considering this context, we aimed to analyze the association of leprosy with social determinants in Imperatriz/MA and Ribeirão Preto/SP. This is an ecological study, carried out from 2006 to 2016, considering the cases of leprosy reported in the two municipalities. Regarding social determinants, the dimensions of the Demographic Census referring to Agglomeration, Literacy, Conditions of occupation of the household, Sanitary conditions, Income of the household, Race/Ethnic group and Age were explored. In Imperatriz, risk areas for leprosy were identified through the Scan Statistics, and then the association with social determinants was verified through binary logistic regression. In Ribeirão Preto, the number of leprosy cases was computed according to census tracts and the association with social determinants was verified by applying generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). As a result, in Imperatriz, the scanning statistic identified areas of high risk for the disease (RR>1), and the logistic model showed that the dimensions composed by the determinants: gender, education, high number of residents per household and low income were associated to high-risk areas (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.07-1.49; ROC = 0.65). In Ribeirão Preto, the results of the best model indicated that men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages were associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37% [p=0.0086], 7.10% [p=0.0057] and 2.44% [p=0.0268], respectively). Black men and uneducated brown women were associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% [p=0.0162] and 4.02% [p=0.0081], respectively). The study made it possible to evidence the relationship of social determinants to the risk of leprosy in two different scenarios. People with no education and low-income levels were associated with illness in both scenarios. These results reinforce that situations of vulnerability are one of the main factors responsible for maintaining the endemicity of leprosy in these scenarios, and consequently, in Brazil
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Humans , Ecological Studies , Spatial Analysis , Social Determinants of Health , Leprosy/epidemiologyABSTRACT
INTRODUÇÃO: Em 2010 a OMS autorizou o uso do sistema GeneXpert® MTB/RIF para a realização do Teste Rápido Molecular para TB (TRM-TB). Objetivou-se-se analisar o impacto do GeneXpert® MTB/RIF na detecção da TB e da TB multidroga-resistente e seu padrão de distribuição espacial em Ribeirão Preto-SP. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico realizado em Ribeirão Preto-SP. A população do estudo foi composta de casos de TB notificados no Sistema de Controle de Pacientes com Tuberculose (TBWeb) no período de 2006 a 2017. A análise descritiva dos casos foi realizada por meio de estatística descritiva dos parâmetros quantitativos através do software IBM SPS Statistics versão 25. Para classificar a tendência temporal e observar o impacto da implementação do TRM-TB, foram utilizadas as metodologias Prais-Winsten e Série Temporal Interrompida (STI) através do software StataSE versão 14 e também a modelagem ARIMA com a finalidade de obter uma previsão da taxa de TB para os próximos anos através do software RStudio. Para identificar os padrões espaciais da doença no município foram empregadas as técnicas de estimador de densidade de Kernel, G e G* e varredura (puramente espacial, variação nas tendências temporais e espaço-temporal). RESULTADOS: A tendência temporal da TB apresentou decréscimo de 18,1%/ano e de 6,9%/ano para em crianças. O Distrito Norte apresentou decréscimo de 6,67%/ano e o distrito Leste crescimento de 17,5%/ano na incidência de TB. A TB resistente, após a implementação do TRM-TB, apresentou aumento de 0,6% por ano. Na maioria dos anos analisados, a cultura é solicitada para menos da metade dos casos de TB. Foi identificado um aumento no número de solicitações de TMR e estacionariedade nas solicitações de baciloscopia. A maior parte dos casos foi diagnóstica por meio de demanda ambulatorial. Com as análises espaciais utilizadas foi observado que os casos e os aglomerados não se formam de maneira aleatória no espaço, verificando-se que a TB é distribuída desigualmente no município. CONCLUSÃO: Apesar da TB resistente não ser um problema no cenário, o estudo evidenciou um crescimento na sua incidência, o que o coloca em estado de alerta. O uso da análise espacial possibilitou a identificação das áreas prioritárias, colocando-as em evidência para ações de vigilância em saúde. Ressalta-se a importância do uso de ferramentas de análise espacial na identificação de áreas que devem ser priorizadas para o controle da TB, sendo necessária maior atenção aos indivíduos que se enquadram no perfil indicado como "de risco" para a doença
INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the WHO authorized the use of the GeneXpert® MTB/RIF system to perform the Molecular Rapid Test for TB (TRM-TB). The objective was to analyze the impact of GeneXpert® MTB/RIF in the detection of TB and multidrug-resistant TB and its spatial distribution pattern in Ribeirão Preto-SP. METHODS: Ecological study carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP. The study population consisted of TB cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System (TBWeb) from 2006 to 2017. Descriptive analysis of cases was performed using descriptive statistics of quantitative parameters through the IBM SPS Statistics software version 25. To classify the temporal trend and observe the impact of the TRM-TB implementation, the Prais-Winsten and Interrupted Time Series (STI) methodologies were used through the StataSE software version 14 and also the ARIMA modeling in order to obtain a prediction of the TB rate for the coming years through RStudio software. To identify the spatial patterns of the disease in the city, the techniques of Kernel density estimator, G and G* and scanning (purely spatial, variation in temporal and spatio-temporal trends) were used. RESULTS: The temporal trend of TB showed a decrease of 18.1%/year and of 6.9%/year for children. The Northern District showed a decrease of 6.67%/year and the East District a growth of 17.5%/year in the incidence of TB. Resistant TB, after the implementation of the TRM-TB, increased by 0.6% per year. In most of the years analyzed, culture is requested for less than half of TB cases. An increase in the number of RMT requests and stationarity in smear microscopy requests was identified. Most cases were diagnosed through outpatient demand. With the spatial analysis used, it was observed that cases and clusters do not form randomly in space, verifying that TB is unevenly distributed in the municipality. CONCLUSION: Although resistant TB is not a problem in the scenario, the study showed an increase in its incidence, which puts it on alert. The use of spatial analysis made it possible to identify priority areas, putting them in evidence for health surveillance actions. We emphasize the importance of using spatial analysis tools to identify areas that should be prioritized for TB control, requiring greater attention to individuals who fit the profile indicated as "at risk" for the disease
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Humans , Tuberculosis , Molecular Diagnostic Techniques , Spatial AnalysisABSTRACT
This is an evaluative study, with sequential explanatory mixed methods, aimed at evaluating the performance of the Brazilian Mobile Emergency Medical Service (SAMU) in the Grande ABC region, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. In the quantitative approach, an analysis of interrupted time series was performed to evaluate the immediate and gradual effects of the SAMU on hospital mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. The qualitative approach was conducted via semi-structured interviews and a thematic analysis was applied for the interpretation of the results, exploring the attitudes and values of the interviewees regarding the performance of SAMU in the Grande ABC region. Interrupted time series analysis showed a -0.04% reduction in the underlying mortality rate since SAMU implementation (95%CI: -0.0816; -0.0162; p-value = 0.0040) and a reduction in the mortality level, -2.89 (95%CI: -4.3293; -1.4623; p-value = 0.0001), both with statistical significance. To improve the robustness of the results, a control region was used, showing a statistically significant difference in the post-intervention result of -0.0639 (95%CI: -0.1060; -0.0219; p-value = 0.0001). The interviews revealed that the SAMU has the potential to intervene in the prognosis of transported cases, however, challenges related to the availability of beds, expansion of telemedicine, and continuous training of professionals for qualified emergency care in the event of a heart attack must be overcome. The results indicate that the studied intervention is part of a set of factors that, together, generate more conditions to achieve a better result.
Estudo avaliativo com uso de métodos mistos na tipologia explanatória sequencial cujo objetivo foi avaliar o desempenho do Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência (SAMU) na região do Grande ABC, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Na abordagem quantitativa, foi realizada análise de séries temporais interrompidas para testar os efeitos imediatos e graduais da intervenção sobre a mortalidade hospitalar por infarto agudo do miocárdio. A abordagem qualitativa foi realizada através de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, e a análise temática foi aplicada para a interpretação dos resultados, explorando as atitudes e valores dos entrevistados em relação ao desempenho do SAMU no Grande ABC. A análise de série temporal interrompida mostrou uma redução de -0,04% na taxa de mortalidade subjacente desde a implementação do SAMU (IC95%: -0,0816; -0,0162; p = 0,0040) e uma redução no nível de mortalidade, de -2,89 (IC95%: -4,3293; -1,4623; p = 0,0001), ambas estatisticamente significativas. Para melhorar a robustez dos resultados, foi utilizada uma região de controle, o que mostrou uma diferença estatisticamente significativa na tendência pós-intervenção de -0,0639 (IC95%: -0,1060; -0,0219; p = 0,0001). De acordo com as entrevistas, o SAMU tem o potencial de intervir no prognóstico dos pacientes transportados; entretanto, em casos de infarto agudo do miocárdio, diversos desafios precisam ser superados, relacionados à disponibilidade de leitos, expansão da telemedicina e capacitação permanente das equipes de atendimento qualificado em emergências. Os resultados indicam que a intervenção faz parte de um conjunto de fatores que, conjuntamente, geram mais condições para alcançar melhores resultados.
Investigación evaluativa, utilizando métodos mixtos explicativos secuenciales, cuyo objetivo fue evaluar el desempeño del Servicio de Atención Móvil de Urgencia (SAMU) en una región de Brasil, denominada Grande ABC, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. En el enfoque cuantitativo, se realizó un análisis de series temporales interrumpidas para comprobar los efectos inmediatos y graduales de la intervención sobre la mortalidad intrahospitalaria por infarto agudo de miocardio. El enfoque cualitativo se llevó a cabo a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas y para la interpretación de los resultados se aplicó un análisis temático, investigando las actitudes y valores de los entrevistados sobre el desempeño del SAMU en la región Grande ABC. Los análisis de series de tiempo interrumpido mostraron una reducción -0,04% en la tasa de mortalidad subyacente desde la implementación del SAMU (IC95%: -0,0816; -0,0162; p = 0,0040) y una reducción en el nivel de mortalidad, -2,89 (IC95%: -4,3293; -1,4623; p = 0,0001), ambos con significación estadística. Con el fin de mejorar la solidez de los resultados, se utilizó un control de región, que mostró una diferencia estadísticamente significativa en la tendencia del resultado post intervención de -0,0639 (IC95%: -0,1060; -0,0219; p = 0,0001). Las entrevistas revelaron que el SAMU tiene el potencial de intervenir en la prognosis de los casos trasportados, sin embargo, deben superarse los desafíos relacionados con la disponibilidad de camas, expansión de la telemedicina y el entrenamiento continuo de profesionales para la asistencia cualificada en emergencias, en caso de un ataque al corazón. Los resultados indican que la intervención estudiada es parte de un conjunto de condiciones que, juntas, generan más condiciones para alcanzar un mejor resultado.
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Humans , Emergency Medical Services , Research Design , Brazil , Hospital Mortality , Interrupted Time Series AnalysisABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze trends in suicide rates in Brazil in the period before and after the start of the economic recession. Methods: interrupted time series research using national suicide data recorded in the period between 2012 and 2017 with socioeconomic subgroups analyses. Quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to analyze trends in seasonally adjusted data. Results: there was an abrupt increase in the risk of suicide after economic recession in the population with less education (12.5%; RR = 1.125; 95%CI: 1.027; 1.232) and in the South Region (17.7%; 1.044; 1.328). After an abrupt reduction, there was a progressive increase in risk for the black and brown population and for those with higher education. In most other population strata, there was a progressive increase in the risk of suicide. Conclusions: the Brazilian economic recession caused different effects on suicide rates, considering social strata, which requires health strategies and policies that are sensitive to the most vulnerable populations.
RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar tendencias de tasas de suicidio en Brasil, antes y después del inicio de la recesión económica. Métodos: estudio de series de tiempo interrumpido utilizando datos nacionales de suicidio registrados entre 2012 y 2017 con análisis por subgrupos socioeconómicos. Modelo de regresión quasi-Poisson empleado para analizar tendencias de datos ajustados estacionalmente. Resultados: observado aumento abrupto en el riesgo de suicidio pos recesión económica en la población con menor escolaridad (12,5%; RR = 1,125; IC95%:1,027; 1,232) y en la Región Sur (17,7%; 1,044; 1,328). Pos reducción abrupta, ocurrió aumento progresivo en el riesgo para la población de negros y pardos y de mayor escolaridad. En la mayoría de los demás estratos poblacionales, verificado aumento progresivo en el riesgo de suicidio. Conclusiones: la recesión económica brasileña produzco efectos diferentes en las tasas de suicidio, considerando los estratos sociales, lo que demanda estrategias de salud y políticas sensibles a poblaciones más vulnerables.
RESUMO Objetivos: analisar as tendências nas taxas de suicídio no Brasil, no período antes e depois do início da recessão econômica. Métodos: estudo de séries temporais interrompidas utilizando dados nacionais de suicídio registrados no período entre 2012 e 2017 com análises por subgrupos socioeconômicos. Modelo de regressão quasi-Poisson foi empregado para analisar as tendências dos dados ajustados sazonalmente. Resultados: observou-se aumento abrupto no risco de suicídio após recessão econômica na população com menor escolaridade (12,5%; RR = 1,125; IC95%:1,027; 1,232) e na Região Sul (17,7%; 1,044; 1,328). Após redução abrupta, ocorreu aumento progressivo no risco para a população de pretos e pardos e na de maior escolaridade. Na maioria dos demais estratos populacionais, verificou-se aumento progressivo no risco de suicídio. Conclusões: a recessão econômica brasileira produziu efeitos diferentes nas taxas de suicídio, considerando os estratos sociais, o que demanda estratégias de saúde e políticas sensíveis às populações mais vulneráveis.
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ABSTRACT Background: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. Methods: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. Results: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. Conclusions: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.
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ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the temporal trend of accidents due to percutaneous exposure in a public hospital in Brazil, between 2007 and 2019, according to sociodemographic and professional characteristics. Methods: analysis of time series of accidents due to percutaneous exposure that occurred in health workers. Sociodemographic and professional variables, accident profile, post-accident behavior and accident incidence rates were evaluated. The Prais Winsten regression was used for trend analysis and calculation of the annual percentage change, with a significance level of 5%. Results: 761 occupational accidents were recorded. There was a downward trend in the rate of percutaneous injuries among female workers (-0.012%; p=0.009), who had secondary education (-0.011%; p=0.035) and among all health professional categories (-0.010%; p =0.019). There was an increasing trend (0.018%; p= 0.050) among workers with ≥ 61 months of professional experience. Conclusions: the analysis showed a decreasing incidence of percutaneous accidents, which can be explained by multiple factors.
RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar tendencia temporal de accidentes por exposición percutánea en un hospital público brasileño, entre 2007 y 2019, segundo características sociodemográficas y profesionales. Métodos: análisis de series temporales de los accidentes por exposición percutánea ocurridos en trabajadores de salud. Fueron evaluadas las variables sociodemográficas, profesionales, perfil de los accidentes, conductas post-accidentes y tasas de incidencia de los accidentes. La regresión de Prais-Winsten fue empleada para análisis de tendencia y cálculo de la variación porcentual anual, con nivel de significación de 5%. Resultados: fueron registrados 761 accidentes ocupacionales. Hubo tendencia decreciente de la tasa de accidente percutáneo en trabajadores del sexo femenino (-0,012%; p=0,009), que poseían enseñanza media (-0,011%; p=0,035) y entre todas categorías profesionales de salud (-0,010%; p=0,019). Observado tendencia creciente (0,018%; p= 0,050) entre trabajadores con tiempo ≥ 61 meses de experiencia profesional. Conclusiones: el análisis evidenció incidencia decreciente de accidentes percutáneos, que puede ser explicada por múltiples factores.
RESUMO Objetivos: analisar a tendência temporal dos acidentes por exposição percutânea em um hospital público no Brasil, entre 2007 e 2019, segundo características sociodemográficas e profissionais. Métodos: análise de séries temporais dos acidentes por exposição percutânea ocorridos em trabalhadores de saúde. Foram avaliadas as variáveis sociodemográficas, profissionais, perfil dos acidentes, condutas pós-acidentes e as taxas de incidência dos acidentes. A regressão de Prais Winsten foi empregada para análise de tendência e cálculo da variação percentual anual, com nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: foram registrados 761 acidentes ocupacionais. Houve tendência decrescente da taxa de acidente percutâneo nos trabalhadores do sexo feminino (-0,012%; p=0,009), que possuíam ensino médio (-0,011%; p=0,035) e entre todas as categorias profissionais de saúde (-0,010%; p=0,019). Observou-se tendência crescente (0,018%; p= 0,050) entre trabalhadores com tempo ≥ 61 meses de experiência profissional. Conclusões: a análise evidenciou incidência decrescente de acidentes percutâneos, que pode ser explicada por múltiplos fatores.